Abstract: The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interaction between the strategic objectives of the European Green Deal and the economic risks arising from accelerated decarbonization, the transition to renewable energy, and the “greening” of international trade. It is demonstrated that the transformation of EU regulatory regimes— particularly the introduction of the CBAM mechanism, the strengthening of MRV requirements, revisions to energy taxonomies, and the standardization of carbon accounting—creates a new competitive landscape in which states and businesses face higher compliance costs, increased cross-border regulatory pressure, and growing market fragmentation. Based on conceptual generalization and comparative analysis of environmental regulation tools, the study argues that effective environmental diplomacy—combining negotiation mechanisms, harmonized standards, digital carbon-tracking instruments, and financial mobilization—can substantially reduce transaction costs and mitigate transitional inflationary effects.

The paper proposes a multi-level policy architecture encompassing the international level (mutual recognition of embedded-emission accounting methodologies, development of climate clubs, globalization of MRV protocols), the regional level (taxonomy alignment, creation of hydrogen and energy corridors, deeper integration of electricity markets), and the sectoral level (phased decarbonization roadmaps for steel, cement, chemicals, and transport). The analysis shows that digital certificates of origin and carbon footprint, interoperable auditing systems, unified registries, and verification standards strengthen market trust and facilitate export opportunities for producers adopting green technologies.

Special attention is given to instruments of a just transition, including blended-finance mechanisms (such as CCfD and guarantee funds), industrial modernization programs, regional reskilling initiatives, and social safety cushions. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in integrating environmental diplomacy, regulatory standardization, and financial mobilization into a single coordination architecture that minimizes the “cost of disorganization,” accelerates industrial modernization, and supports the ecologization of production without compromising competitiveness.